Mathematical Model Predicts Oscars: "The Transient Universe" Has a Great Probability of Winning the First Prize

"Hollywood Reporter" staff writer Ben Zauzmer is good at using mathematical models to predict movie data. He predicted the possible Oscars in 2023. According to his data, "The Transient Universe" has a 68.1% probability of winning the Oscar for Best Picture this year.

The second place on the probability list is "The Banshee of Inisherin", with an 8.9% probability of becoming the best picture. The third place "Tal" is 5.9%, and the fourth place "All Quiet on the Western Front" is only 3.5%.

He also said that mathematical predictions are based on a large amount of historical data, and the model produces probabilities, not guarantees. Some of the predictions over the years will be very accurate. For example, 19 out of 20 of the 2022 model predictions eventually won Oscars. And some years will be a little unexpected.

In addition to the best picture, he also used the model to make predictions for the best director, best actor and actress, best supporting actor and actress, best foreign language film, etc.

1. Best Director: "The Instant Universe" 59%

2. Best Actor: Austin Butler "Elvis Presley" 41.7%

3. Best Actress: Cate Blanchett "Tal" 52.9%

4. Best Supporting Actor: Kwan Ji-Wei "The Instant Universe" 78.9%

5. Best Supporting Actress: Angela Bassett "Black Panther 2" 39.8%